📊 Definition
Pre-Lease Percentage (also called Forward Occupancy) measures how many units are already leased for a future date, typically 30-60 days out. It shows committed future occupancy before residents actually move in.
The Formula
Typically calculated for 30-60 days forward
Example Calculation
A 200-unit property currently has 185 occupied units (92.5% physical occupancy). Looking 60 days forward, 195 units have signed leases:
This property's occupancy is improving—currently 92.5% but will reach 97.5% as signed leases convert to move-ins.
Where Does the Data Come From?
Pre-lease data comes from your property management system's leasing module, which tracks lease execution dates and scheduled move-in dates:
- Signed Leases: Executed lease agreements with future move-in dates
- Move-In Schedule: Calendar of upcoming resident move-ins
- Notice to Vacate: Known upcoming move-outs that create vacancies
- Lease Expirations: Month-to-month or expiring leases
Most PMS platforms (Yardi, RealPage, Entrata) can generate forward-looking occupancy reports by projecting current + signed leases minus known move-outs.
Who Uses This Metric?
Property Managers
Use pre-lease percentage to set leasing urgency, adjust marketing spend, and manage staffing. High pre-lease reduces pressure; low pre-lease signals aggressive action needed.
Asset Managers
Track forward occupancy trends to forecast revenue and identify properties at risk of occupancy drops before they happen. Pre-lease is a leading indicator of future performance.
Regional Managers
Compare pre-lease percentage across properties to allocate support resources and identify which sites need urgent attention versus those tracking well.
Why This Metric Matters
1. Leading Indicator
Unlike physical occupancy (a lagging indicator showing past performance), pre-lease is a leading indicator showing future performance. It gives advance warning of occupancy problems or confirms leasing momentum.
2. Operational Decision-Making
Pre-lease percentage directly informs whether to offer concessions, increase marketing, adjust pricing, or maintain current strategy. Low pre-lease = time to act; high pre-lease = stay the course.
3. Revenue Forecasting
Forward occupancy enables accurate near-term revenue projections. You know with certainty what occupancy will be 30-60 days out based on signed leases, improving budget accuracy.
💡 Pro Tip
Track the gap between physical occupancy and pre-lease percentage. A widening gap (pre-lease much higher than current) signals strong leasing momentum. A narrowing gap (pre-lease close to current) signals leasing has slowed and action may be needed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's a good pre-lease percentage?
Target 95%+ pre-lease for 30-60 days forward at stabilized properties. Below 90% signals potential occupancy problems ahead and requires immediate leasing attention. Above 98% suggests strong demand and potential pricing power.
How far forward should I calculate pre-lease percentage?
Most operators track 30-day and 60-day forward occupancy. Shorter windows (30 days) show immediate leasing urgency; longer windows (60-90 days) show sustained demand trends. The right timeframe depends on your typical lease-up cycle.
What if pre-lease is lower than physical occupancy?
This signals declining occupancy ahead—upcoming move-outs aren't being backfilled fast enough. It's a red flag requiring immediate action: increase marketing, offer concessions, adjust pricing, or investigate lead-to-lease conversion and competitive/market factors causing the slowdown.
Should I include pending applications in pre-lease calculations?
No—only include executed lease agreements. Pending applications have approval and move-in risk. Pre-lease should reflect committed future occupancy, not potential occupancy. Track applications separately as a pipeline metric.
How does seasonality affect pre-lease percentage?
Pre-lease typically dips during off-peak leasing seasons (winter) and rises during peak seasons (spring/summer). Compare pre-lease to the same period last year rather than to last month to account for normal seasonal patterns.
Track Pre-Lease Percentage Automatically
BubbleGum BI provides forward-looking occupancy dashboards tracking 30, 60, and 90-day pre-lease percentages with historical comparisons and automated alerts when leasing velocity slows.
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